Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, NY
August 10, 2024 4:58 AM EDT(08:58UTC) ChangeLocation
Sunrise6:09 AM Sunset8:21 PM Moonrise11:16 AM Moonset9:51 PM |
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Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Expires:202408100300;;174968 Fzus51 Kbuf 092255 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 655 pm edt Fri aug 9 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz042-043-100300- niagara river to sodus bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 655 pm edt Fri aug 9 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening - .
Tonight - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday night - West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - West winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ005
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 100841 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 441 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
In the wake of Debby's remnants it will be cooler and drier today.
An upper level trough will bring unsettled weather tonight through Monday with lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes, and general scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during Sunday. After this high pressure will build in, bringing a return to fair and seasonably warm weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A closed upper level low will spin just northeast of Lake Superior, which will continue to usher in a cooler air mass. Weak surface high pressure will offset this with dry air in the boundary layer keeping today mostly rain free. There could be some lake effect and diurnal cumulus, but it will otherwise be dry outside of perhaps an isolated shower. It will be breezy with gusts 30 to 35 mph across the Niagara Frontier. Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
The upper level low will move closer tonight with the axis of its trough moving into the Central Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures around +8C will be cool enough to support lake effect rain showers when combined with synoptic moisture associated with this trough.
Some uncertainty when these will get going, but the most likely time is during this evening. SSW flow will direct these east/northeast of the lakes, with a bit more activity expected off Lake Ontario due to the greater moisture available. Otherwise, fair weather outside of lake effect rain showers. A light breeze will limit radiational cooling, but lows will still drop into the 50s due to the cooler air mass.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A mid-level closed low gyrating north of the Great Lakes will slowly meander east over the rest of the weekend. With H850 temps in the single digits (+8C/+9C) and some level of synoptic moisture wrapping back into the region lake effect showers will 'likely' be found northeast of both lakes Sunday morning. As we transition into the afternoon the incoming trough axis combined with diurnal effects will lead to scattered to numerous showers developing inland from the lakes. Showers will then transition back to mainly lake effect rain showers off the lakes Sunday night. With enough lake induced instability in place...a few embedded thunderstorms could develop within the lake effect rain showers.
Overall...Sunday looks like it will be the coolest day of this period. Highs will range from the 60s to the low 70s. Lows Sunday night will generally be found in the 50s by daybreak Monday.
The mid-level low will continue to ever so slowly pass by to our north Monday as it tracks towards New England
Again
lake effect showers in the morning east and southeast of the lakes will transition to some diurnally-driven showers or even a thunderstorm inland from the lakes in the afternoon. As we progress into the evening we should see convection begin to diminish as drier air works into the eastern Great Lakes.
Highs on Monday will be found in the 60s to low 70s again.
Monday night...high pressure building into the region will bring about a quiet and dry weather for most locales. Lows will generally be found in the 50s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface based ridging will generally bring quiet and dry conditions for most locales during this period
That said
with the trough lingering overhead and subtle features moving through, a few isolated showers or storms may pop up during peak heating each day.
Given the difficulty in timing and placing these features this far out...have held PoPs in the slight-chance range for now.
Otherwise temperatures will recover back to around normal...with daily highs climbing back to the mid 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday through Friday...and nightly lows warming to the mid 50s to lower 60s.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly
flight conditions for the 06Z
TAFcycle, although there is a risk for some
MVFRfog or cigs across the Southern Tier through mid-morning. Otherwise, it'll become breezy today with gusts 25 to 30 knots at times.
Tonight, increasing moisture will support lake effect clouds and eventually rain showers. Mainly
VFRflight conditions in the evening with areas of
MVFRlate.
Outlook...
Sunday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect showers east of the lakes transitioning to more general scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday night
VFR
with scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers/areas of
east of the lakes.
Monday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect showers east of the lakes transitioning to more general scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Monday night through Wednesday...Mainly
VFR.
MARINE
Moderately brisk westerlies will more or less continue across the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend. This will promote
conditions into Sunday night. With a favorably cool environment in place aloft, any lake effect rain showers will have the potential to produce waterspouts on the lakes. Waterspouts tend to form on boundaries.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for NYZ001- 005>007-010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042- 043.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ044-045.
Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 7mi | 71min | 64°F | |||||
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 7mi | 59min | SW 7G | 67°F | 29.93 | |||
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY | 33mi | 49min | WNW 14G | 72°F | 73°F | 29.88 | 60°F | |
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 59mi | 59min | SW 6G | 65°F | 29.91 |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KROCGREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 4 sm | 64 min | WSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.91 | |
KIUACANANDAIGUA,NY | 24 sm | 3 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 55°F | 94% | 29.93 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KROC
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KROC
Wind History graph: ROC
(wind in knots)
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast
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Buffalo, NY,
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